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Having scored nine times in his first seven Premier League games, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has started the season with incredible momentum.

Even though this doesn't represent his strongest opening to a campaign - he registered 11 strikes in his initial seven matches in 2022-23 and double digits last year - it nevertheless places him with a three-goal lead in the initial race for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that zero of his nine conversions have been spot-kicks makes it all the more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Of course, injury could definitively intervene in the eventual Golden Boot winner, but there are two key factors why Haaland is so heavily favored for the award so soon in the campaign.

Firstly, the total of conversions he has already scored - and, of similar importance, the quantity and caliber of opportunities he's receiving.

Secondly, the slow start his typical competitors for the honor have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) indicates how many goals a Premier League player has historically scored from the number and quality of opportunities he's received.

It is not a figure arbitrarily chosen by statistics boffins, but by English top-flight records.

Upon reviewing at footballers' expected goals in the Premier League so far this campaign from open play, the Norwegian striker is getting so many more quality chances to convert than any other player.

Indeed, even if Haaland didn't excel at scoring from situations than anyone else in the competition, he would nevertheless have converted more than twice as many goals as all other players.

Scoring Situation Assessment

This is illustrated by breaking down the total and standard of opportunities that attackers have encountered in the English first division so far.

Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this campaign, a dozen more than all other attackers.

That is actually not especially surprising for him - he had actually taken more non-penalty shots at this point in the most recent two terms (30 in 2023-24 and 34 in 2024-25).

What's particularly exceptional even for Haaland is the quality of chances he has had this term. His attempts have had an expected goals rating of an average of 0.27.

This number represents is that players have historically converted the attempts he's taken at a rate of 27%.

Regarding attackers registering at minimum ten attempts, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to score on average - thanks to a several close-range conversions against West Ham United and Brighton.

Haaland's xG of an average of 0.27 is much higher than the 0.17 expected goals per effort he had at the opening of last term.

To summarize, the opportunities he has had in 2025-26 have been significantly more straightforward to score from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the opening of last term.

Past Performance Analysis

Beginning a campaign so impressively is, as noted earlier, typical for Haaland. After seven games last campaign he had registered ten strikes - four more than any other player and six more than Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Liverpool forward who secured the scoring title with 29 goals, seven additional compared to the Manchester City striker.

During the current term, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

Indeed this has been the least productive beginning to a English top-flight campaign the Egyptian attacker has made.

Challengers' Quiet Beginning

It is not just Salah who has opened quietly either. If we look at the top 11 scorers in the Premier League last campaign, Haaland has scored as many goals as the other 10 players combined so far.

Be it because of fitness issues - multiple prominent forwards - extended transfer dramas in a specific forward's circumstances or just due to the fact that their sides have underperformed (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's potential challengers in the race for the Golden Boot have failed to perform so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

Although the Norwegian appears the obvious frontrunner for the Premier League scoring title, what about the European top scorer prize that is given to the player with the most goals in Europe's top-five leagues?

That race is significantly tighter at this initial phase because two world-class strikers have also started in great form, with eleven and nine strikes respectively.

The circumstance Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the highest xG of the trio despite not attempting any spot-kicks makes him the favourite.

However, because Kane and Mbappe are two of the best finishers in continental soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the race is certainly on.